11/19/08

Finally On to Basketball, Thank God.

First of all, guys, there is a reason I haven't talked much about football. Croom has killed my love for MSU football. Game after game I find myself growing more apathetic. When some fandom does try to fight its way out, all I feel is anger at Croom for his arrogance, stubbornness, and stupidity. What can I say to you after all these losses? Hey, they lost for the 40th time in Croom's tenure because the offense is terrible and Croom doesn't see anything wrong with it. Whats going to happen next week? We'll score 7 points and get our asses kicked again because Croom will point fingers at everybody except the real problem, the person in charge of the offense, himself. That would get kind of repetitive after the 7th loss wouldn't it? So, there won't be any post about Arkansas or Ole Miss after both are finished embarrassing MSU. There is no point. We already know the story, MSU lost because their offense is an embarrassment to the game of football and anyone who has ever played it. If my anger bursts free long enough there might be a post at the conclusion of the Egg Bowl detailing why Croom should be fired. . . .Boy will that be long.

Now, like I said, thank god for basketball. The Bulldogs are already 3-0 on the season and play their fourth game Saturday against Fairleigh Dickinson. Given that I don't live near Starkville, I haven't had the opportunity to see them play. Even so I wanted to share some limited thoughts based on the box scores and feelings for the rest of the year. Warning: In a reversal from my usual tendency, this may be overly optimistic. In fact it almost certainly will be. You don't really get a sense of problem areas and deficiencies until you actually see a team play.


-Well the starting 5 for the year has been set, well at least pretty much:
C Jarvis Varnado
PF Kodi Augustus
SF Ravern Johnson
SG Barry Stewart
PG Dee Bost
and given Stansbury's unique substitution pattern so far, the 2nd team is just as clear:
C Elgin Bailey
PF Romero Osby
SF Jacquiese Holcombe
SG Riley Benock
PG Phil Turner
Now why I say it is pretty much set. Brian Johnson and Twanny Beckham are both injured. When Johnson returns there is a chance he could replace Augustus in the starting line-up. If Augustus proves himself over the next few games though, Johnson will be one of the first off the bench instead. Osby probably ends up the odd man out unless he develops quickly. As far as Beckham, if he is good enough he could take over the back-up PG role. This would be ideal because Turner is subpar here and likely fits better at SG.

-As far as that substitution pattern, Stansbury has used the platoon system thus far, subbing 5 at a time. This won't last though. Give it about month and I'm thinking he will have gone back to a more conventional approach. Starting lineup will stay the same (with the possible exception of Johnson for Augustus) with 3 or 4 key backups. Bailey will definitely be one of those, the loser of the Augustus/Johnson battle another, and the other spots are up for grabs.

-This team is built around and best at tough defense and rebounding. They'll be near the top of the conference in both. A Stansbury team known for defense and rebounding, surprise surprise. On the downside, turnovers are still an issue. Again that is just one of the things, along with stellar defense and rebounding, you usually get with a Stansbury team. You have to take the good with the bad I suppose.

Varnado: the man is just a force on the inside defensively. It should be mentioned he is 3 blocks shy of breaking the MSU career blocks record of 249. I think its safe to say he is going to shatter that. It is hard to imagine, but he may be an even better shot blocker this year. He is definitely more of a presence rebounding the ball, averaging 12 rebounds through 3 games. Varnado won't be Charles Rhodes on offense, I would be expecting about a 8-10 ppg average. His rebounding and shot blocking more than makes up for it though. We really need to appreciate what we have here folks, he is hands down the best shot blocker in the NCAA right now and it isn't even close. A shot blocker like this doesn't come along every day. He literally changes the game defensively. I still think back to that Memphis game where momentum shifted every time he had to sit. Varnado goes out and instantly Memphis went on a run. Varnado came back in, Memphis starts to sputter and we start climbing back in it. Nevermind all the blocks, think about how many other shots he alters, how the opponent has to shy away from taking it inside to avoid him. One last thing, I know this was against a Div II team, but even so this stat line against North Alabama is ridiculous: 16 points, 14 rebounds, 7 blocks.

Stewart: Stewart is still Stewart. Not flashy but a steady performer. Solid defense, good if somewhat streaky 3 point shooter, decent ball handler, mid range game, and tons of experience. He'll get his 12-15 ppg, play good defense, hit a big 3, and basically not lose it for you. It appears he is almost exclusively at the 2 now, which is where he belongs. I still don't understand why he was the backup PG last year unless it was just desperation. Playing a more natural position and reduced responsibilities (i.e backup PG) not to mention another year of experience should lead to a better year for Stewart.

Ravern Johnson: Well, it is early but he is starting to live up to some of the hype he had coming out of high school. One thing I like, he is a true SF. This is the first time in years that MSU won't have guards playing on the wing. We'll see if that makes a difference. He is the second leading scorer behind Stewart and I think might end up being the #1 scorer by the end of the year. He can shoot the three as well as anyone on the team and has shown flashes of taking the defender off the dribble. His defense is a little shakey, but even Stansbury can't ignore his abilities on offense.

Holcombe: Meh, I don't know. He definitely isn't a scorer, but he might be useful because he has such a different style from Ravern. Ravern is all about scoring, whether it be slashing to the basket or taking the open 3. Holcombe rarely looks for a shot (for good reason) but he plays good defense, hustles to the ball, that kind of thing. I just don't know if he'll be used much. Maybe if someone in particular is a match up problem

Augustus: Well, he's no Rhodes but he hasn't been too bad. He has range out to the 3 pt line though I doubt he'll use it much. So far he is averaging 8.7 ppg and 6 rpg. Will he maintain that production against tougher competition? If so then I can live with that.

Bailey: He gives good effort in the rebounding department but his offensive game is very raw, even though he is averaging 9 ppg. Everything has to be right under the basket for him. He is a nice change of pace from Varnado though. Varnado is this thin lanky guy who rejects everything in sight, while Bailey is this 260 pound brute who just leans on you and wears you down. I like him coming off the bench.

Osby: Well, from what I've heard the only problem is he still has quite a bit to learn. From what I understand he just looks lost at times out there. Being a true freshman, this isn't surprising. The natural talent is unmistakable though. Give him some time and I really think he'll be a star in a year or two. One hidden benefit of Brian Johnson's injury is Romero is getting valuable minutes that he probably wouldn't have seen otherwise. Experience is what he needs most now and hes getting it.

Benock: Still hasn't fully recovered from that Tennessee game. He can shoot the three but he just seems gun shy. If he gets his confidence back somehow he can be valuable situationally if nothing else.

Turner: Meh again. He gives great effort on both sides of the ball. Tenacious defender. He isn't a very good shooter. He can get hot at times but is far too erratic. Right now he is at PG but he isn't the best ball handler, adequate but not great.

Bost: He can shoot the three or drive the lane, but where he really shines is distributing the ball. He is averaging 7 assists to only 3 turnovers per games. No he isn't going to score nearly as much as Gordon. On the flip side, even as a freshman he isn't going to turn it over near as much as Gordon and he'll have far more assists. Bost can't take over a game, but he is going to get his teammates involved much more. Could this finally be a pass first PG? Gordon was great, but he wasn't really a PG. He wasn't a distributor. Bost is, but he is going to make those true freshman mistakes.

-There isn't really anything to back this up, but I think this might be more of a TEAM this year. Again no tangible reason, I just have a feeling the cohesiveness and attitude might be better.

- This team is really balanced in terms of scoring. Nobody is averaging over 15.5 ppg, but 3 are averaging double figures and seven are averaging over 8 ppg. We all knew that no one person was going to replace the scoring of Gordon or Rhodes, that everyone was going to have to pick up a portion of the slack. It looks like that has happened.

-The team seems a little too reliant on the three. They're not getting it into the post like we are accustomed too. True that may be partly due to Varnado and Augustus down low instead of Rhodes or Roberts or whomever. Now it hasn't mattered so far because they're knocking down the threes. Stewart is hitting 53%, Ravern 53%, Bost 46%, and Benock 50%. When you are hitting them you can never shoot to many. Now these guys are all good 3 pt shooters, but even so you have to believe those percentages will drop over the course of the year. On top of that they'll be games where one or more are just ice cold for whatever reason. When that happens, how will they respond? Its a concern.

-I find myself getting excited after this 3-0 start in which they have frankly easily crushed each opponent. Unfortunately, the reality is these three opponents are bottom of the barrel. Its encouraging that MSU is doing what its supposed to, namely win by 15+, but nothing more can be said than that. They'll be facing Washington St. and possibly Pitt very soon and then we'll know alot more about how good they are. Until then I'm sticking with my NIT expectation with a possible, possible, flirtation with the bubble.

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